Nigeria’s Population Puzzle: High Fertility Rate

By George Ozalla

The 2025 State of the World Population Report, launched in Abuja on Tuesday, reveals Nigeria’s high fertility rate and reproductive health challenges. According to UNFPA’s Representative in Nigeria, Koessan Kuawu, Nigeria’s fertility crisis begins from reproductive rights and access deficits rather than cultural preferences alone. “The Nigerian fertility crisis is not normal; it is a failure to respect, protect, and fulfill individual reproductive rights,” Kuawu stated.

The report shows that Nigeria’s fertility rate stands at 4.3 births per woman, significantly higher than the global average. A joint UNFPA-Google survey revealed that 30% of Nigerian men and 21% of women prefer having four or more children, citing health, economic, and social barriers that prevent them from realizing these preferences.

NPC Chairman, Hon Isa Nasir Kwarra, emphasized the need to tackle structural inequalities and unmet reproductive health needs that shape fertility decisions. He observed that population issues should be viewed not merely through numbers but through the lived experiences and rights of individuals, especially women and young people. Kwarra referenced findings from the 2023-2024 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, which showed a modest decline in Nigeria’s Total Fertility Rate from 5.3 to 4.8 children per woman.

The report spotlights persistent challenges, including a 21% unmet need for family planning and high rates of adolescent fertility, with 15% of girls aged 15-19 already pregnant or mothers. Kwarra appealed to stakeholders to join forces in supporting reproductive health services and advancing human rights. “This shift is not only about human rights but also about smart development,” he added.

The Minister of State for Health and Social Welfare, Dr. Iziaq Salako, represented by Mr. Alex Ugochukwu, stated that the ministry is working to expand access to family planning services and integrate maternal and child health with sexual and reproductive health education. “Reproductive health extends beyond the health sector, intersecting with education, gender equality, poverty reduction, and community empowerment,” he said.

Senator Victor Umeh, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Population, advised against legislative attempts to regulate birth rates, advocating for education and awareness instead. “Countries like China have attempted this approach, and it has not been particularly effective,” Umeh stated. He stressed the importance of sex education for girls to understand their reproductive cycles and take control of their fertility. Umeh commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for inaugurating a high-level committee to oversee the national population and housing census, highlighting the need for a technology-driven process to ensure credible and verifiable results.

The Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Population, Hon. Okunjimi John Odimayo, also spoke at the event, highlighting the committee’s commitment to supporting policies that promote reproductive health and rights. Some Commissioners from the National Population Commission (NPC), were in attendance.

The event also brought together various stakeholders, including corp members, young people, National Council of Women Societies (NCWS), Market Women Associations, top government officials and representatives from civil society organizations.

Highlights of the event included a short play by young people on fertility and a group photograph. With Nigeria’s population currently standing at over 226 million and projected to reach approximately 400 million by 2050, the country faces significant challenges and opportunities in harnessing its demographic potential.

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